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Potential relief??

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Potential relief??

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 7/28/2011, 2:14 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201104_model.html



In that graph, you scroll down to see the larger picture. We are rooting for the purple, red, or blue models to be correct here. The others go too far west to help us in the drought stricken areas.



Here's why.



That dome of high pressure that is crushing the south (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, etc) with heat and drought is very strong still. This is a modified "bermuda high" that has set up a tad farther west than usual. Atlanta folks can testify to the high usually sitting right over them.



Once the jet stream rides up and over the high system, it doesn't tend to move. High pressure creates sinking air. Sinking air is dry air. It takes lift in the atmosphere to create storms.



As a result, all the storms are running in systems deflecting off the high and bouncing around it to the north. Upper Midwest can testify today, as can Chicago. This will continue to be the running board primarily, but the high will oscillate a bit and slightly change the tracks of the systems......just not much. This is a typical summer pattern.



To change this pattern, you need to see a VERY strong low pressure system slam into the high and move it, the high to break down and slip away, or a tropical system to bump against it from the south and west and push it out of here. (All the while remembering it is summer and another high can set up just as easily.)



Well, today it looks as though the tropics have come to life a bit. We have a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico (perfect spot!) and another system of interest coming off the coast of Africa in the eastern Atlantic.



Texas, and hopefully points north, will be rooting for this tropical storm to make landfall and curl north and east. This is the perfect track for nudging the high out of here and bringing us all some relief. The South needs the rain really badly. The Midwest would like to see some temperature relief. And, the Upper Midwest would like a break from the severe stuff. If Tropical Storm Don makes the correct landfall, and takes the correct path, he could be a trifecta for a lot of us....even if temporarily.



I would love to watch more around the nation, but I just don't have the experience to know your patterns. I hope that if Don helps us, he doesn't shake up your pattern and make things worse. I hope he only shakes up the people that want to be shook...lol.



Stay tuned. This could also be an interesting tropical season for the southeast and coastal areas. We're just getting started.
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Re: Potential relief??

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 7/28/2011, 2:22 pm

Oh, but if I had to venture a guess, I would say the high is still too strong to move right now. It would need to weaken a bit on the south or west side to allow the tropical storm "a way in" if you will. With the cold fronts bouncing off the north side, I imagine the south side of the high is the stronger side....kind of like squeezing a balloon with your right hand, the left side bulges.



My guess would be that the tropical storm will deflect off the high and travel farther and farther to the west, which is not the best track for us.



The one forecasting adage I've learned to listen to is: Forecast the movement of the high and you can predict where the lows will go. This just means that highs are stronger than lows, typically. In other words, the high is not going anywhere easily.



Bear in mind, though, I only have the internet and instincts. I don't have access to the models, math, and education that the weather service forecasters do. All I have is an ego and a passion/obsession for weather. I tend to oversimplify. In some ways, it's better. In some ways, it's not.



Either way, it's fun to talk about and I love trying to outguess the "professionals." HA! What an oxymoron......weather professional. Hee hee hee {giggles to self}.
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Re: Potential relief??

Post  FarmerValerie on 7/29/2011, 8:12 am

Ive been watching this one, the predictions I've seen show it going into TX right about Houston, and then heading into SWTX and then on to New Mexico. I realize 75% of the nation needs rain, and relief from the drought, but let's face it, West TX needs it pretty bad. Thing is if it's a slow moving storm, that means floods from the run off, imagine pouring water on a terra cotta clay pot, that's what it's like out there. Of course the firefighters sure would appreciate it!
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Re: Potential relief??

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 7/29/2011, 3:47 pm

It's heading west.....I win. Hahaha...bite me, meteorologists.



Sure sucks, though, since Texans REEEAAALLLYYY need the rain.
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Re: Potential relief??

Post  FarmerValerie on 7/30/2011, 7:56 am

First thing I did upon rising this AM was look at the radar on my phone from my local station, I was physically ill for those in WTX.
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Re: Potential relief??

Post  FarmerValerie on 7/30/2011, 8:33 am

In another thread or two weather patterns have been mentioned, check out this story on the Summer of 1980 in TX.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/dallas/hot-north-texas-2011-still-no-match-record-135224598.html
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How hot can it be for plants to produce fruit?

Post  jymarino on 7/30/2011, 8:45 am

Here in STL it has been very hot for the last couple of weeks. My cherry toms are putting out a few buds, but not as many as they should be. Everyone else just seems to be surviving out the heat wave. This coming week will be in the lower 90's. Is that low enough for them to start producing again?

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Re: Potential relief??

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 7/30/2011, 9:57 am

@jymarino wrote:Here in STL it has been very hot for the last couple of weeks. My cherry toms are putting out a few buds, but not as many as they should be. Everyone else just seems to be surviving out the heat wave. This coming week will be in the lower 90's. Is that low enough for them to start producing again?



Maybe....if they get a little shade. JY, mine are doing the same as yours. I haven' seen a bud set fruit in over 3 weeks, but the plants keep growing taller. Just keep them going and wait for the weather to cool off. We will likely be amazed at how our tomato season closes this year. Because one thing is for certain....it will eventually cool off.
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