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Hurricane Season Activity..

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Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 9/6/2011, 2:43 pm

Now that we are confident in what Katia and Lee will become (Lee a flooding rainmaker...again. And, Katia having very little affect on land in the US.), we can focus on what's next...

Both Maria and Nate are likely coming soon. NWS and NHC are both watching a system in the Gulf, again. It's actually Lee's tail getting left behind down there. It should spin up into another depression or small TStorm.

The other area is well out in the Atlantic, back where Katia developed. This one may make it all the way west into the Caribbean. If so, conditions will be favorable in 6-10 days for more development.

And, on day 13, we are already seeing yet another Cape Verde system come off the coast of Africa with promise.

Yes, the tropics are alive and well this year. Luckily, not a lot of the activity, Irene aside, has made direct hits on land.

Stay tuned.
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 9/7/2011, 5:00 pm

Things still hold for Katia missing and the television stations are really trumpteting that charge now, too...lol. If they only watched this thread a week ago, they could have "broken" the news earlier. ...haha the TV schmoes.

We are now watching two areas I mentioned for the letters M and N. We have Maria named today out in the Atlantic. It looks, initially as though she will follow Katia more than Irene and miss the US. However, Maria will make it further south and possibly affect the Leewards and maybe Puerto Rico in a few days. She won't be that strong, but she maintains watching. By the time she emerges closer to the US, she will be hit by an upper level trough that will take the remnants of Lee out of here and consequently use the jet stream to sweep Maria out to sea, too.

The other area that may grab a name is an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It doesn't look like much can happen with this storm in terms of strengthening. That air over Texas is just too darned stubborn and dry. And, as of now, it's cold, too. That does nothing for developing storms. Best case, and it will be a very minor chance, is for Lee's remnants to stick around a smidge longer so the nose of the dry air in Texas can build over Louisiana. If this happens, southern parts of Texas just might see some rain from that storm. But, it's a real long shot at this point.

Next watcher is a storm that may develop from the 15th to 25th of September. It will develop south of Cuba in the southern/western Caribbean. This one bears serious watching. It may be the next large storm to have a real chance at affecting the US. I could go into details as to why, but this little update is long enough.

You'll have to stay tuned, and don't say you weren't warned with plenty of notice.
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  middlemamma on 9/8/2011, 4:56 am

Were you a weather man in your previous life?
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 9/8/2011, 9:13 am

Nah....it's my passion, though. And, it's what I studied in college. Why? Too obvious?

I chose, however, to have a family and raise kids with parents actually being home. The only thing I knew of meteorolgy majors, when in school, was the guys on TV. I don't like doing things half-assed, so my schedule (aside from several uprootings of family) would be to work at 3pm and home at midnight M-F.....not conducive to kids, homework, after school activities, a happy wife, etc. I didn't know of storm chasers (for a living) and all the NWS jobs or private firms that hire contract weather dudes. I only knew of tv and teaching back then.

So, I essentially chose family over career and changed majors to a boring business degree I could take anywhere. Once I realized I didn't need a degree to start my own business, I just gave up and flunked out. (I started majoring in parties) That all said, I was too immature for college, too, and the military....or a cruise ship....would have been better for me. Funny how hindsight is 20/20. I actually made the right initial decision, but didn't control the backslide.

I come from a broken home (still not near as bad as others), and nothing in my control will ever break mine. Pretty much every decision I make revolves around that single principle.
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 9/9/2011, 5:31 pm

Today's update has only one change with it...

Nate won't affect the US Gulf Coast. We were wrong in what we saw. Instead, Nate takes our "choice B" track and heads due west into Mexico. Can't win 'em all......LA/FL coasts thank us for missing on this one.

Maria bears a little watching. She may tease us with a close call. But, she should still curve sharply once clearing the Bahamas and head out to sea. She may look like she is bearing down on SC, but she should curve. Stranger things have happened, but we have high confidence in this track and missing the CONUS.

Also, still on track to have a very favorable environment in the Caribbean in about a week. Lots of things are starting to hint at it, too. Watch in a few days how the Weather Channel or your local news will start talking about a potential storm down there. If it bears out, the storm will have virtually nowhere to go but north and affect he SE USA. The storm will have a ridge of high pressure to both it's east and west, leaving it only one way to escape....north.

Keep your eyes on the tropics if you live in areas that can be affected. We are a long way from over.
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 9/15/2011, 10:33 am

Newest trends are showing we will have to wait until the 20th - 30th of September if we are going to see anything happen in the Caribbean.

A lot of things going on that lead us to watch for storms, but no real influence coming in from the east. So, the pattern is there and primed, we are just waiting for a spark. Sometimes we don't get one, but if we do.....the 20th through 30th looks ripe for a "Wilma" or "Floyd" type situation to develop that would eventually hit Florida.

But, I wouldn't say it's even "likely" yet.
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Re: Hurricane Season Activity..

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